US tariffs in 2026: what changed for exporters after the Supreme Court ruling, and what to watch next

For exporters selling to the United States, 2026 has brought more tariff changes than most companies can track. The broad tariffs of 2025 were struck down in February, a temporary global tariff replaced them for five months, and since late July a new set of country-specific duties has applied. More may follow before the end of the year.

This article summarises where things stand in October 2026 for exporters in India, the GCC and Asia, and gives a short checklist to keep your US pricing and contracts accurate. Tariff rules are still moving quickly, so confirm the position for your own products with your US importer or a licensed customs broker before you quote.

February 2026: the Supreme Court ruling

On 20 February 2026, in Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump, the US Supreme Court held that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not authorise the President to impose tariffs. This ended the so-called reciprocal tariffs and the other IEEPA-based duties, including the additional duty on Indian goods linked to Russian oil purchases. US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) stopped collecting IEEPA tariffs on goods entered from 24 February 2026.

One IEEPA-related measure survived. The suspension of duty-free treatment for low-value shipments (the de minimis rule for goods under USD 800) was kept in place on a different legal basis, and the US Court of International Trade declined to overturn it in August 2026. A separate law permanently removes the de minimis exemption from 1 July 2027. Exporters who ship small parcels direct to US consumers should continue to assume duty is payable.

24 February to 24 July: the Section 122 bridge

Immediately after the ruling, the administration imposed a temporary 10% tariff on imports from almost all countries under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. That law allows a tariff of up to 15% for no more than 150 days. The Section 122 tariff expired at midnight on 23 July 2026.

The Court of International Trade ruled in May that the Section 122 tariff exceeded the President's authority, but the Federal Circuit stayed that judgment while the appeal continues. The outcome matters mainly for possible refunds to US importers of the duty already paid.

Since 24 July: Section 301 forced-labour tariffs

From 12:01 a.m. US Eastern Time on 24 July 2026, the US Trade Representative (USTR) applied new additional duties under Section 301 to 60 economies. USTR found that these economies do not adequately prohibit imports of goods made with forced labour. The rates, as published in the Federal Register, are:

• 10% for 19 economies that have adopted, or committed to adopt, a forced-labour import ban. India is in this group, along with the UK, Canada, Mexico, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Malaysia and Cambodia.
• 12.5% for the other 41 economies. This includes all six GCC states (UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman and Bahrain), China, Hong Kong, Vietnam and Thailand.
• For the EU and Taiwan, a combined rate of 10% including the normal (MFN) duty; for Japan, South Korea and Switzerland, a combined 12.5%.
• Goods subject to Section 232 duties are excluded, so the two do not stack. Several product categories are also excluded and listed in USTR's annexes to the notice.

Section 232: metals and other sectors remain

Section 232 national-security tariffs were not affected by the Supreme Court ruling. Under the framework in force since April 2026, goods made entirely or almost entirely of steel or aluminium pay 50% on their full value, and derivative products made substantially of these metals generally pay 25%, with some lower rates for specific equipment. Separate Section 232 duties also continue on autos, auto parts and other sectors. Because Section 232 goods are excluded from the forced-labour tariffs, the correct classification of a product decides which regime applies.

A worked example

Consider a generic product with a normal US duty (MFN rate) of 12% and a customs value of USD 100,000. If it is made in India, the US importer pays 12% plus the 10% Section 301 duty, or USD 22,000 in total. If the same product is made in the UAE, the importer pays 12% plus 12.5%, or USD 24,500. If the product is a steel article covered by Section 232, the importer pays the MFN duty plus the Section 232 duty, and no forced-labour duty.

Note that the duty is based on the country of origin of the goods, not the country they ship from. Re-exporting goods through the GCC does not change the rate if the goods were made elsewhere.

What to watch next

• Excess-capacity investigation: in March 2026 USTR opened a second Section 301 investigation into 16 economies, including India, China, Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Bangladesh, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Mexico and the EU. GCC states are not on the list. On 30 September the USTR said the report and any proposed action were still pending. Any resulting tariffs would likely be added on top of the forced-labour tariffs.
• Court challenges: the forced-labour tariffs are being challenged at the Court of International Trade, which heard argument on 30 September 2026. A decision had not been issued at the time of writing.
• India-US talks: the two countries agreed a framework for an interim trade agreement in February 2026 and have continued negotiations since. Check for any announcement that changes India's rate.
• Refunds: CBP is refunding IEEPA duties to US importers of record through its CAPE system. Phase 3, covering finally liquidated entries of importers who have sued, opened on 6 October 2026. Refunds go to the importer of record, which matters if you shipped on DDP terms.

Checklist for exporters

• Confirm the 10-digit US HTS code and country of origin for each product with your US importer.
• Check whether the product falls under Section 232. If it does, the forced-labour tariff does not apply, but the 232 rate may be higher.
• Check USTR's annex exclusions for your HTS code before assuming the 10% or 12.5% rate applies.
• Review your Incoterms. Under DDP you carry the duty risk; under FOB or FCA the buyer does. Add a clause that allows price review if US duties change after the order date.
• Keep origin evidence (bills of materials, production records, supplier declarations) ready in case the importer needs it.
• If you shipped DDP and paid IEEPA duties as importer of record, ask a US customs broker or trade lawyer whether you are eligible for a refund.

Finding US-ready partners on Nexus BYF

If tariff changes are pushing you to review your US channel or find alternative markets, Nexus BYF lets you list sell offers and a company profile free, and browse buy requirements from importers worldwide. Membership gives direct contact details so you can discuss duty, Incoterms and pricing with buyers before you commit.